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ABARES Forecasts Significant Decline in Australian Farm Profits

High Input Costs and Drought Conditions Lead to 70% Profit Drop

ABARES Forecasts Significant Decline in Australian Farm Profits?w=400

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The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has released a report forecasting a substantial decline in broadacre farm profits, projecting a 70% decrease to approximately $65,000 per farm.
This downturn is attributed to escalating input costs and persistent drought conditions affecting various regions.

Winter crop production is anticipated to fall by 21%, with the wheat crop alone expected to decrease by 12% to 10.9 million hectares, marking the smallest area planted since the 2019-20 season. Barley crops, however, are projected to increase by 4% to 5.0 million hectares, driven by higher prices and lower fertiliser requirements.

Farmers are grappling with soaring prices for essential inputs such as fuel and fertiliser, which are significantly impacting profitability. Despite these challenges, some regions have received recent rainfall, offering a glimmer of hope. However, the forecast for the upcoming winter suggests drier-than-average conditions, potentially exacerbating the situation.

In response to these challenges, farmers are encouraged to reassess their risk management strategies. Ensuring adequate insurance coverage is crucial to mitigate the financial impact of unpredictable weather patterns and rising operational costs. Tailored farm insurance policies can provide comprehensive protection for crops, livestock, machinery, and buildings, offering a safety net during these uncertain times.

As the agricultural sector navigates these difficulties, staying informed and proactive in managing risks will be essential for maintaining resilience and sustainability in the face of ongoing economic and environmental pressures.

Published:Tuesday, 9th Jun 2026
Author: Paige Estritori

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The ratio of claims paid by an insurer to the premiums earned, used as a measure of profitability.